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NeurIPS paper reviews 2025 #6

30 January 2026
  • News
  • Quantitative research

In this paper review series our team of researchers and machine learning practitioners discuss the papers they found most interesting at NeurIPS 2025.

Here, discover the perspectives of Quantitative Researcher, Ognjen.

Omnipresent Yet Overlooked: Heat Kernels in Combinatorial Bayesian Optimisation

Colin Doumont, Victor Picheny, Viacheslav Borovitskiy, Henry Moss

This paper considers kernel choice in the setting of Bayesian optimisation, where the underlying parameter space is a product of finite sets.

The authors point out that several popular kernels are based on Hamming distance – k(x, y) is a function of the count of coordinates along which x and y differ. Standard kernels however place weights on the different coordinate axes, thus introducing many hyperparameters to the resulting algorithms.

The authors propose a canonical choice of k, effectively fixing the relative weights of the different coordinate axes, that they evaluate empirically to be comparable to state-of-the-art in this field.

Given the parameter space S, that is a product of finite sets, the authors form the Hamming graph H with vertex set S, by connecting vertices that differ in exactly one coordinate. Their choice of kernel is the heat kernel on H, thus depending only on a single hyperparameter.

The authors observe that H is a product of cliques, and hence the heat kernel can be analytically computed. This proposal is empirically evaluated on a selection of problems, including a database of MAX-SAT problems and a sample neural architecture search problem.

The authors’ proposal is interesting, making use of classical ideas from graph theory and geometry.

Omnipresent Yet Overlooked: Heat Kernels in Combinatorial Bayesian Optimisation
Blue line chart object tracing a jagged upward trend action along vertical and horizontal axes context on a white square background NeurIPS 2024 paper reviews

Read paper reviews from NeurIPS 2024 from a number of our quantitative researchers and machine learning practitioners.

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Bubbleformer: Forecasting Boiling with Transformers

Sheikh Md Shakeel Hassan, Xianwei Zou, Akash Dhruv

This paper is trying to forecast bubbling using transformers. The authors consider a 2-dimensional liquid in a container, in the presence of gravity. The bottom pane of the container is at a temperature higher than the liquid, so that bubbles appear continuously. The liquid has an ambient horizontal flow velocity, making this system chaotic.

The physical state of the system is described by four functions – two describing the velocity field of the fluid, one describing the temperature of the fluid and one describing the signed distance field to the closest bubble. The model is fed these functions at points of a regular space-time grid and is trained to predict the outputs of a forward-looking classical CFD simulation of this system.

The architecture consists of a sequence of convolutions, followed by multiple space-time attention blocks. Each attention block consists of a temporal attention followed by the addition of two attention mechanisms in the two spatial coordinate axes directions, finally followed by an MLP.

Notably, all three attention mechanisms attempt to separate out the low- and high-frequency components in the attention pattern. They achieve this by interpolating between the uniform attention pattern and the classical attention pattern computed from the query-key pairs. The amount of interpolation is a learned parameter.

The problem in the paper seems poorly behaved from a statistical perspective – it is modelling a chaotic system, and some of the inputs (the signed distance field) are geometric objects that don’t appear to be represented in a canonical way. In spite of this, transformers appear to be able to learn sensible physics here, in particular maintaining conservation laws and other invariants.

Bubbleformer: Forecasting Boiling with Transformers
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